Global equities are mostly higher while US futures fell ahead of the July 4 holiday in the US. Benchmarks rose in London, Paris, Frankfurt and Tokyo, but fell in Hong Kong and Seoul.
Last week was the fourth losing week of five for Wall Street as investors worried about high inflation and the possibility of higher interest rates leading to a recession.
The most optimistic scenario, a “Goldilocks outcome”, would cause a slowdown big enough to cool inflation to its highest level in four decades, but not strong enough to cause a “hard landing”, Mizuho said. Bank in a comment.
“It’s a tall order that’s far from guaranteed at this point,” he said, noting that markets will weigh in on the comments in the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s final policy meeting, scheduled Wednesday.
Economic data for the past few weeks has shown that inflation remains high and the economy is slowing. The latter raised hopes on Wall Street that the Fed will eventually ease its efforts to raise rates, which have weighed on equities, especially more expensive sectors like technology.
Analysts don’t expect equities to rally until there are solid signs that inflation is easing, and the latest data doesn’t show it yet. Friday brought a report that inflation in countries using the euro had set another stunning record, pushed higher by a huge rise in energy costs fueled in part by Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Annual inflation in the 19 euro zone countries reached 8.6% in June, surpassing the 8.1% recorded in May, according to the latest figures published on Friday by the European Union’s statistical agency, Eurostat. Inflation is at its highest level since the start of the euro registration in 1997.
Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.8% to 26,153.81 on Monday.
Shares of Japanese telecommunications operator KDDI Corp. lost 1.7%. They fell 4% earlier on Monday as the company grappled with outages that began early Saturday, affecting services to nearly 40 million people.
The company said Monday that most data services had been restored, but phone calls were still affected by the issues that KDDI said were technical issues with switching systems.
The Shanghai Composite added 0.5% to 3,405.43. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed 1.1% to 6,612.60.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 0.1% to 21,830.35 and Seoul’s Kospi fell 0.2% to 2,300.34. India Sensex rose 0.3%, while shares fell in Bangkok and Taiwan.
On Friday, the S&P 500 rose 1.1%, recovering from early losses to close at 3,825.33. The gain ended a four-day losing streak for the benchmark, which still posted its fourth losing week in the past five.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1% to 31,097.26, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.9% to 11,127.85.
The S&P 500 closed its worst quarter since the pandemic began in early 2020. Its performance in the first half of 2022 was the worst since the first six months of 1970. It has been in a bear market since last month, which means a prolonged decline of 20% or more from its most recent peak.
The 10-year Treasury yield, which helps set mortgage rates, held steady at 2.89% after falling on Friday from Thursday’s 2.97%.
Financial markets in the United States will be closed on Monday for Independence Day.
Wall Street remains concerned about the risk of a recession as economic growth slows and the Federal Reserve aggressively raises interest rates. The Fed is raising rates to deliberately slow economic growth to calm inflation, but could potentially go too far and trigger a recession.
High gasoline prices have played a significant role in driving up prices and compressing portfolios.
Early Monday, the benchmark U.S. crude oil fell 67 cents to $107.76 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It jumped $2.67 to $108.43 a barrel on Friday.
Brent crude, the pricing basis for international trade, fell 52 cents to $111.11 a barrel.
The US dollar fell from 135.27 yen to 135.41 Japanese yen. The euro fell from $1.0429 to $1.0440.